Predictive analysis conducted by Solvency II Wire Data points to a recovery in the aggregate Solvency II ratio of European insurers in 2025, with the projected ratio rising from 244% at year-end 2024 to 253% in 2025.

Solvency ratios on the recovery path in 2025?

The forecast is drawn from a sample of 660 solo European insurers that have published Solvency II disclosures for every reporting year between 2016 and 2025. The 2025 sample tracks closely with the equivalent 1,030-firm sample used in the 2024 analysis and with the predictive samples used in earlier reporting years.

Own funds rise faster than the SCR

The key driver of the projected ratio rise is that aggregate Eligible Own Funds (EOF) are expected to grow at a faster rate than the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) over the period.

EOF available to meet the SCR are projected to rise across the sample in 2025, recovering ground lost between 2021 and 2024 and returning to a level comparable to the 2021 peak.

The SCR is also expected to rise in 2025, but by a smaller proportion. Because the ratio is the quotient of EOF and the SCR, the larger rise in the numerator drives the ratio upwards.

Assets continue to grow

Total assets across the sample are projected to continue their post-2022 recovery into 2025, marking a third consecutive year of growth.

The analysis is published less than three weeks after the official publication date of the solo 2025 SFCRs (8 April). There are currently over 1,300 fully extracted QRTs available from the 2025 SFCRs in the system.

The full predictive analysis was presented in the Solvency II Wire webinar on 27 April 2026.